Tomorrow’s Irish Champion Stakes is undoubtedly one of the most eagerly awaited races of the season, every season. The roll call of winners reads like a veritable who’s who of champion in the last decade and rightly so, the race holds its place well in the global pantheon of Group 1 contests.

Tomorrow we should witness round 2 of the clash between Derby winner, New Approach and the best Turf horse in the world Duke of Marmalade. The score is currently 1-0 to the Duke on the basis of his win in the Juddmonte at Newmarket last time out. The Duke brought his tally for the season to 5 Group 1’s with this success and while some had suggested that the horse was workmanlike in this affair, I would be inclined to tale an alternative view and that the horse had plenty in the locker had any horse been good enough and make a decent fist of making a meaningful challenge.

As it happened New Approach was beaten off the park that day and it really was no surprise. The horse was coming back to the track after an almost three month lay off. It was no surprise to see the horse a bit ring rusty. What I found most remarkable however was that the horse still found it impossible to settle in the early parts of his races. To my mind he was equally as spendthrift with his energy in the Derby, but his obvious pace and class allowed him to get away with it. Jim Bolger informs us that they have spent all their training time since the Juddmonte teaching this horse to settle. Frankly until such times as this horse learns this fundamental lesson, he will never be competitive at the highest table, even with the weight for age allowance.

New Approach has been backed as if Duke of Marmalade was a non runner; I think it’s highly unlikely that the Duke of Marmalade is a non starter at this point. The projected rain has come but not in the monsoonal proportions that were expected. Secondly the Ballydoyle confidence in this horse is absolute; remember O’Brien had no reservations about sending this horse to York, when the meeting was abandoned. I think 2.1 about New Approach is a crazy price and I would be inclined to lay him, he will trade at this point or higher in the race regardless of whether Duke of Marmalade runs or not, so let’s see what happens.

Best of luck,

Don

Today saw one of those see-saw affairs, just when you thought it was safe to go back in the laying waters we were struck again with an outsider broadside. No ability to build up momentum and confidence.There were 59 selections on a day that promised much and failed to deliver. There was probably some solace for those who feel that they don’t wish to play over a certain price - like 4.5 for example. But for those devil may care Donkeyites, there wasn’t much respite from the chunkier priced winners.

What you may ask were we doing playing in an all weather seller at Lingfield. The Donkey formula is about critical mass about playing the numbers game when we believe the odds to be in our favour. If only, if only there was only Listed class and above run every day, we would be able to retire earlier. Unfortunately in the thoroughbred ability pyramid as in the human ability pyramid there’s not a lot of quality at the top, but there’s a whole bunch of dross at the bottom. Hence why we are obliged to play in events we would rather not.

A classic example of a race, that we would ideally swerve, but can’t due to tissue prices and possible market value undervaluation was the seller at Lingfield. Courageous Nature was not only making his all-weather debut, but also his handicap debut off a mark of 57. This horse was nothing short of poor in three runs for Brian Meehan on the Turf and in Raise All In he looked to have a shoo-in competitor in this selling grade. I don’t reckon its fair to call the winner an improver as the horse has left his Turf form miles behind in winning this, he has been transformed by the sand. To put that in perspective he was beaten a total of 42 and a quarter lengths in his three previous runs, and its hard to say he was highly tried.

Anyway we made a minor profit on the day, I see the layers have been getting stuck into Duke of Marmalade in advance of the Champion Stakes on Saturday. I think they are mad, I would rather wait for the day of race market and trade then.

All the best,

Don